Monday, July 18, 2011

Report Card - First Year

Just got my report card for the first year.
 
A+ from the Americans for Prosperity Foundation.  They are a conservative group that ranks members on how they voted on 11 key bills related to economic freedom and prosperity.
 
Read all about it at:
 
 
My votes can be found near the bottom of page six:
 
 
The details of the bills are at:
 
 
Bill

Thursday, March 31, 2011

A Day at the Office

The budget process in New Hampshire has four steps:
  1. The Governor's proposal.  Deadline Feb 15 to submit to the House
  2. The House version.  Deadline March 30 to submit to the Senate
  3. The Senate version.  Deadline June 2 to submit to a Committee of Conference.
  4. Committee of Conference version.  Iron out differences between House and Senate versions.  Up or down vote in both House and Senate by June 23.  No amendments, no changes.  Take it or leave it.  If voted down, better find something acceptable by June 30 or the State shuts down.  They always do.
Having committed to the voters that we would not raise taxes and fees, but live within the budget without accounting gimmicks or down shifting expenses to the cities and towns, votes were taken yesterday and today on step #2, the House version.
 
That situation would be tough enough, but was made much tougher by the well known expiration of $700 million in stimulus money, much of which had been used to fund ongoing programs (teacher salaries), rather than being used for one-time projects.  And the current budget is already projected to be $47 million in the hole for the fiscal year ending June 30.
 
We started with the Governor's proposed budget, but that budget eliminated $150 million in payments to cities and towns, including the elimination of State contributions to pensions of public workers.  We restored the $150 million in State aid.  No downshifting.
 
So what did we have to do next?
 
We had to cut about $1 billion in appropriations, and thereby committing to spend $10.3 billion over the next two years.
 
Nobody escaped.  Everybody takes a hit.  Among the controversial:
  • Changing the State retirement system by increasing age eligibility requirements, benefit calculations and contribution rates for new hires and those with under 5 years of service.  Workers up to 10 years will take a smaller hit, based on years of service.  Over 10 years are unaffected.
  • Cutting 20 positions in Environmental Services
  • Cutting 84 positions in Transportation
  • Level funding primary and secondary education
  • Cutting $50 million from UNH and $11 million from Community Colleges
  • Cutting 250 positions from Health and Human Services, while still spending $3.7 billion on the needy
Probably the most controversial was a provision to set deadlines on collective bargaining.  In the past, if an impasse was reached and the contract expired, terms of the agreement would remain in force.  This had the unintended consequence of public employees receiving more generous raises and benefits each year in the future than current conditions would allow.  So there were many impasses.
 
The proposed budget would end the contract when the contract ends.  No continuation.  Come to the negotiating table and work out a new contract.  Or face selective layoffs, not strictly by seniority.  No automatic paycheck.  No incentives to stall.
 
This gets lots of play in the press as union busting.  In truth, it puts equal pressure on both parties to get a contract.  The government needs the services of the skilled and trained employees they currently have.  The need doesn't stop at the end of the contract.  This is not a business that's relocating or going bust.  The government has to continue services or face the immediate wrath of the voters.  Having grown up in Chicago, a Mayor was removed when snow was not removed.  Aldermen don't last long if trash is not collected promptly and the streets aren't cleaned.  The State, Cities and Towns have to function.  There is no alternative.
 
The right to peacefully assemble and petition the government is at the heart of any democracy.
 
So there were many visitors to the State House today.  Estimates of 4,000 over the course of the day, not all at one time.  The vast, vast majority of visitors took this responsibility seriously, peacefully holding up signs to the Representatives as we freely walked about before and after the rally.  None of us were obstructed nor treated with disrespect.  A rally was held on the lawn of the Statehouse, using a large tent with chairs, speakers and music.  I was inside, voting on amendments, and missed most of the rally.
 
I felt it demonstrated democracy the New Hampshire way.  Respect for and by all parties.
 
What we did see inside was a little disturbing.  At a predetermined time a very small group on one side of the gallery decided to disrupt the House.  They had support from a few others in the back and other side of the gallery.  But to us on the floor, it sounded like the whole gallery was going bonkers.  The speaker called a recess and the gallery was asked to leave.  Later in the day they were allowed to return.
 
I was curious as to what was really going on, and I was sent a link to unedited video from the local TV station.  It appears a few rogue firefighters were the instigators:
 
 
So how did I vote?
 
On Monday I visited the Nashua Adult Education Center, whose students had sent me many letters.  These people are immigrants who want to learn English to improve their lives and become productive citizens.  The Center provides day care for their kids for the few hours they are leaning English or working.  After that I visited their GED school where kids who've dropped out can earn high school credits.  The school gets support from private companies (Fidelity), United Way and the State.  This budget may cause the Education Commissioner to reduce funding.
 
Previously I met with parents of developmentally disabled kids.  The State had a wait list to subsidize parents who want to take care of their kids at home, not at an institution.  The wait list comes and goes with State funding.  This budget may cause the HHS Commissioner to put the wait list back.  The parents pleaded to eliminate the wait list.
 
The front page of the Nashua Telegraph has a large photo of one of Jerry's Kids (as in Jerry Lewis labor day telethon) with muscular dystrophy, now an adult.  This is the cause that Firefighters raise millions of dollars for each year.  The story slams  Legislators like me for "dismantling" his care.
 
In voting, I have to balance conflicting interests:
  • The voters from the private sector, worried about their own abilities to make ends meet in the deepest recession since the Great Depression, who asked me to hold the line on taxes
  • The public sector workers, who've counted on certain retirement and health benefits
  • The needy, who's support will likely be cut back to favor the truly needy
I voted my conscience.  I voted for the budget.
 
Bill

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Inquiring Minds Want to Know

My mom was a fan of the National Enquirer.  Their tag line was "Enquiring minds want to know".  The House Leadership wants the Representatives to know the party line on important votes, and their tag line is the Parliamentary Inquiry.

Now that I've figured out that I'm normally voting on a committee report on a bill and not the bill itself, things only get more complicated.  Out comes a floor amendment to the bill in question.  It's a good amendment, makes a bad bill acceptable.  So now I need to vote yea on the amendment, and nay on the committee report to kill the un-amended bill.  And then there's a motion to recondider the vote on the amended bill.

I can deal with picking off the petals on daisies to figure things out.  She loves me, she loves me not, she loves me...  But I'm running out of fingers to figure the number of not's of the reconsider of the amendment of the committee report to kill the bill.  What am I actually voting for?

Fortunately, the House Leadership of both parties is allowed to make a Parliamentary Inquiry (PI) of the Speaker right before the vote.  It goes something like this.  A well know party leader goes to the podium and asks something like:  "Mr. Speaker, if I believe the sun rises in the East, would I not PRESS THE GREEN BUTTON"?  The opponents then have a PI of their own.  The opposition leader gets up and asks:"Mr. Speaker, if I believe the sun sets in the West, would I not PRESS THE RED BUTTON"?  More words that these are actually said (these are politicians), but the end is always the same:  Hint, hint.

Then we vote.  For those of us with ADD or just normal attention spans after a series of speeches, the respective party leaders are now holding up a red or green card.  Your final hint.  Inquiring minds want to know.

Red and Green is not Black and White

When we vote in Representatives Hall, there is a little panel in front of us that has three lights.  The first light is white, indicating that our voting key has been turned on.  The other two lights are red and green.  OK that's easy enough.  Push the red button to vote no, the green button to vote yes.  No problem?  Better pay attention.

A bill is presented to the Representatives.  A committee report is read.  Members can speak for or against.  A vote is called.  Many times it's a voice vote.  The yeas always prevail.  But anyone can request a division vote (yea/nay actual count), or roll call.  If 10 members second the motion, it's time to play "Who wants to be a Legislator".

The question is read by the speaker.  We have 30 seconds to vote.  I know this bill.  It's really bad.  I push the red button.  I sit with my Nashua colleagues and glance around me.  My mentor Carl at the end seat had pressed green.  I get the Regis Phiblin look.  His raised eyebrow is asking me  "Is that your final answer?"  Um...no.  Time for the lifelines.  Take the choices down to two.  Oops, that's already done, red or green.  Let me call my friend Dee, sitting on the other side.  She pressed green.  Time to ask the audience.  Everybody in my Nashua row has pressed green.  I press green.  My final answer.

Afterwards, I am told that we were not voting on the bill.  We were voting on the committee report on the bill.  Pay attention.  The committee thinks, like me, that it was a really bad bill.  So the committee voted to kill it, called Inexpedient to Legislate.  Did we agree with the committee report?  Vote yes to agree with the committee report to kill the bill.

Another answer to the old joke, what's black and white and read (red) all over?  Me.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

The Newsboy Problem

Back when I was in business school we were given The Newsboy Problem.

In a nutshell, the newsboy can buy papers for 33 cents and sell them for a dollar.  He averages selling 100 papers a day.  So how many papers should he buy?

Life is easy if every day he can sell exactly 100 papers, no more, no less.  But life is rarely easy.  1/3 of the time he sold exactly 100 papers.  1/3 of the time he sold 80 papers.  1/3 of the time he could have sold 120 papers.

If he is cautions and buys 80, he will never have any waste.  If he buys 100, he will sell them for a nice profit 2/3 of the time and occasionally lose some inventory.  If he buys 120, he will have maximum profit on the good days and maximum losses on the slow days.  What's a newsboy to do?

As a former newsboy and current State Rep, I'm again facing the same problem.  Our challenge in Ways and Means is to forecast Revenue for the next two fiscal years starting July 1, 2011.  Revenue comes from multiple sources and we have data going back 10 years.  But driving full speed ahead and just looking out the rear view mirror is not always safe.  So we also had three days of testimony from various experts to try to polish our crystal ball.

The dilemma for me is moral, not mathematical.  Do we vote the number that is most likely, 50/50 chance of up or down?  Do we take a cautious approach to make sure that we don't overspend during uncertain times?  Do we take an aggressive approach and say the recession is over and the economy will improve more than it did last year?
  • 50/50 means a 50/50 chance of new tax increases after the budget is passed
  • Cautions means cutting back important programs that nobody wants to cut
  • Aggressive means risking more overspending, the problem we were elected to solve
The Committee took the 50/50 approach, with the understanding we will update the forecast each and every month.  More work for us, in addition to our normal activities of hearing and voting on proposed tax law changes.  But it's the right thing to do.

As for the newsboy, the long answer is at:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newsvendor

The short answer is 107

Friday, January 14, 2011

The Golden Eggs

Remember Aesop's fable about the goose that laid the golden eggs?  The greedy owners killed the goose because they wanted all the gold that must have been inside.  But it was just an ordinary goose.  Then they had nothing.

I had an example of that last week in committee hearings.

One of our jobs in Ways and Means is to determine a realistic revenue projection for the two fiscal years beginning July 1, 2011.  So for the past week we heard testimony from all the agencies that contribute revenue to NH, and looked at their 10 year history.  Thursday we heard from the Lottery Commission, which has contributed over $260M in revenue in past years, but is down to under $240M this year.

One disturbing comment from the Commission was the "very unhappy players" who have just cashed out a jackpot at the lottery offices.  In the past, they would walk away with all smiles.  Now, in addition to Federal withholding (which everyone expects), an additional 10% is taken out by the State of NH on the new "Gamblings Winning" tax.  This 10% never comes back.  Unlike the Federal tax, it is not offsettable by gambling losses, and applies to everyone.  That includes NH residents who hit a jackpot in Connecticut, and Massachusetts residents who bought a NH lottery ticket over the border.  These winners felt like losers.

So now we hear stories of how border towns have had their lottery sales dry up, not to mention the associated sales of gas and convenience store items, and perhaps a short trip as a tourist into our fine state.  A tax that was supposed to raise an additional $4M has actually lost $2M.  And that's just on the lottery side.

Scratch tickets are the most popular lottery item, about 69% of the sales over the last 10 years.  NH has a decent payout on scratch tickets, ranging from 60% on the dollar tickets up to 74% on higher denominations.  Nice golden eggs for everyone.  But two years ago the Legislature imposed this new 10% tax, which is killing the goose.  Those irresponsible legislators were mostly voted out office, but their legacy remains.

My fellow members on Ways and Means were disappointed to hear all this, and one of our members has sponsored House Bill 157 to kill this tax effective July 1, 2011.  The bill has been assigned to our committee, and a public hearing will take place.

It can't happen too soon.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Guns 'N Roses

January 5 was the official start of the 2011-12 legislative session.  Nice flower display at the podium, followed by voting on House rules allowing guns in the Statehouse.
 
Got a call the other day from Nick Pappas of the Nashua Telegraph regarding my timely letter on the topic.  He decided to publish it:
 
Letter to the Editor, Nashua Telegraph, January 5, 2010
 
As a newly elected state representative, I’ve learned that House decorum requires gentlemen to wear jackets and ties.
 
After reading the Dec. 30 headline on Page 2 of The Telegraph, “NH GOP wants to allow guns in Statehouse,” I had images of us coming to work in Bat Masterson outfits with pearl-handled revolvers in our belts and perhaps a cane and derby hat.

But that is not the case. Although the 1889 state constitution fixed our annual paycheck at $100, our personal dress code evolved into modern fashions. Speaker William O’Brien’s proposal would allow all citizens, provided they had a police-issued concealed carry permit, to keep that right while at the Statehouse. No exposed guns.

The proposed rule seems perfectly reasonable to me.

Rep. Bill Ohm
Nashua